ABSTRACT

With rapid population aging, the demand for care services is increasing. This study aims to estimate future care needs of older adults in Seoul and provide baseline data for policy planning. Using panel data from the 2015-2021 Korean Population and Housing Census, this study constructed a transition matrix of household types among older adults and projected future changes in household structures by sex and age. Data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA) were then used to estimate the probabilities of utilizing different types of care services, applying a multinomial logit model based on the sex, age, and household type of individuals aged 65 and older. Finally, future demand for care services was projected using a cell-based approach that combines the projected older population by sex, age, and household type with their corresponding probabilities of care use. Results show that total care demand will nearly double by 2036 compared to 2021, with a particularly sharp increase among men aged 75 and older using formal care. These findings suggest the need to consider both demographic and household structure changes in developing care service policies for older adults in Seoul.